Monday, 2 January 2017

2016 was impressive, hopefully 2017 could be better


100% profit!

Why 2016 was a good year for me?
The FBM KLCI ended at 1,641.73 on December 30, down 50.78 points or 3%, yet I managed to make a return/ROI of 32.77% and beat the market

The picture below shows the return of my portfolio before I starting to restructure and sold most of my stocks, mainly due to the U.S election and interest hike.



In 2016, I have lost considerable amount of money in Pohuat, Wtk & Tekseng, mainly because of wrong judgement and chase high. Fortunately, I managed to make my money back in Gkent, Kesm, Gamuda-we & Cscstel. Overall, 2016 was a surprisingly good year as portfolio significantly exceed my expectation of 15% ROI.

Lessons learnt in 2016?
Don’t over-diversified
I had been so greedy and buying too much of stocks in 2016, my return would be superb if I invest all my money in Gkent, Kesm, Gamuda-we & Cscstel instead of chasing all those trending stocks, which yield only little return and some even caused loss just like what Tekseng did to me..

       Portfolio management for 2017
  • 7 or max 8 stocks in my portfolio
  • 2 high dividend defensive stocks are required to guarantee my return and protect my portfolio, REIT can be considered
  • All these stocks, if possible, should not be relevant to each other to avoid unsystematic risks


Don’t try to time the market
For a good stock, all u need to do is dumb dumb hold, don’t let it go
I had been acting smart and trying to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest for the past 2 years, I would not hesitate to sold when a stock trading sideways for a period of time (usually >1month), when I found it couldn’t break the resistance, and also the down-trending stocks.
I promised myself to buy back during weakness and sometimes I manage to grab before too late (Kesm, Gkent) and sometimes I don’t even have the opportunities to buy it back (Padini, Oldtown)

By Cold Eye in his latest book,《孙子股市兵法》


Emotion control
Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”-Warren Buffett
It is easy to say but difficult to execute, will try hard to upgrade the “software & hardware” in order to accomplish.
What doesn’t kill Malaysia could actually make it stronger?
  • Depreciating of crude oil prices
  • Political turmoil
  • Slowing China economy
  • Brexit
  • U.S interest hike
  • Selling of foreign fund
  • Victory of Donald Trump
  • Falling of Ringgit

All these factors had trigger the ‘fear’ and caused investors selling like there’s no tomorrow, which subsequently led to market plunge. You could easily make tons of money if u seize the opportunities to buy during market correction as KLCI bounced back quickly every time.

Looking forward
2017 going to be a challenging year as the equity market will be extremely volatile, mainly because of how Donald Trump presidency will affect US economic policies and the world economic climate, don’t forget The US central bank also signalled up to three hikes in 2017.

There is only 1 goal I set for 2017, grow my fund to 6 digit
Time management and focus are the key to reach my goal

    Plans in 2017
  • Enhance knowledge in fundamental analysis, specifically in analysing financial statements
  • Practising paper trading using technical analysis to assist entry timing
  • Study more in economics
  • Conducting more company analysis and post more