Hibiscus - buy or sell?

Hibiscus plummeted 0.14 sen (12.17%) on last Friday after the release of 4th quarter report

I grabbed the opportunity to add more as it was obviously oversold

I could think of several reasons why Hibiscus is dumpped

All investors are expecting Hibiscus to deliver a spectacular quarter result following the acquisition of PSC Sabah, in fact, the negative goodwill jack up profit again, there was no oil sold from Anasuria, higher expenses and higher tax, which in turn disappointing the investors, and cause the panic selling.

Profit of 98.7m is largely driven by a negative goodwill

no oil sold by Anasuria

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Do bear in mind,  although there was no oil sold by Anasuria in this quarter, 15.8m tax charged because of tax regime in UK

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Why I chose to add more?

Over the past two years, it has been the practice of the Company to conduct at least one cargo offtake on a quarterly basis. In the Current Quarter, the Company did not conduct a crude oil offtake. The offtake was deferred to 2 July 2018 to ensure the overall safety and smooth running of operations whilst the drilling of the GUA-P2 side track well was ongoing. As of the date of this report, the Company has successfully completed two crude oil offtakes (524,432 bbls) for the financial quarter ending 30 September 2018 (“1Q 19”). This is expected to contribute favourably to our financial performance for 1Q 19 - extracted from quarter report

FY19 will undoubtedly be a more exciting year as there will be full contribution from the North Sabah asset and higher levels of production from both assets at a combined value of about 9,500bbls/day, coupled with the steady-state in crude oil prices at USD60-70/bbl.  - extracted from PublicInvest Research

Anasuria's average uptime has steadily improved to 94%
North Sabah's average uptime =96%

Brent crude stay above 70 for Jun & July

Brent crude oil prices would be sustainable at current price levels given:

• Strong global oil demand growth, particularly from China and India

• The prolonged period (2015 to 2017) of minimal investment in exploration and development projects

• Higher oil supply disruption risk with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region

• Continuing production decline in Venezuela and supply disruption in Libya

• Strong compliance of OPEC and their partners to agreed levels of supply cuts causing stockpiles to shrink in volume

• Reinstitution of sanctions by the United States of America on Iran which could affect oil supply

-extracted from quarter result

Technical Outlook

sell-off with high volume on Friday is not a good sign, but i think it's good as it managed to wash away most of the speculators and the margin kaki

immediate support at 0.93
cut loss point at 0.90
major resistance 1


dont forget the risk

Kindly refer to research done by Publicinvest Research for more figure and forecast.


Disclaimer: it isn't a buying or selling recommendation, your money, your decision

A Brief Market Analysis

KLCI

KLCI is still in an uptrend, looks good as it's well supported by our "national team"

FBM70

FBM70 is moving lower since Jan 18, broke below 200 SMA today and is expected to trend lower

small caps

SMALLCAP is dropping since Jan 18, from 18090 to 14593 (around 20%),
many retail investors are trapped here, it is getting lower day by day, and it needs lots of patience to wait until it reverses to uptrend


GE14 & Trade War are currently controlling the emotions of  investors, dont try to catch the falling knive
strategy: cash is king now, holding around 70% cash, I will be back after GE14

from: http://www.solvingforgeny.com

Disclaimer: it isn't a buying or selling recommendation, your money, your decision

ROI IN 2017

Portfolio on 29 Dec 2017

Total ROI in 2017 = 42.53% (including dividend), managed to achieve goal set in the beginning of the year (2016 review)

As u can see, from green to red, Gadang & Gamuda-We significantly affects the overall return of my portfolio as i bet big on them. Fortunately, all my steel-related counters help to lift up my return, Vitrox unexpectedly breaks 100% gain mark within 8 -month time. In 2017, I made handsome returns by selling all my shares in Choobee & Ekovest-WB, and incurred some losses in Prolexus. Not much transaction done in this year, as i was too busy with my new career and house moving, wish i could have more time to spend on investment this year :)

Target set in 2018  = double my investment fund


Plans

• need to trim my portfolio as cash on hand (investment fund) left around 7%
• pump in more cash into investment fund by controlling my spending 
• write at least an investment-related article each month

taken from https://blogs.wf.com/

Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision