Friday, 5 May 2017

Ekovest : catch the falling knife?

source: The Star

I did expect there will be spillover effect to Ekovest, but i cant imagine that it hit limit-down (max decline 30%) to 1.01, before closing down RM1.17 today, with 230.13m shares transacted.

Im thinking what's wrong with those so called investors (or speculators)? losing their mind and selling like there is no tomorrow!!! my friends asked me whether i am selling my Ekovest-WB or not, i reply them that im going to buy on weakness, why sell? Ekovest, at this point, to me, is still a good company with strong fundamentals & bright prospect, and i dont see any direct impact of Bandar Malaysia deal to Ekovest currently


I have sold 70% of Ekovest-WB when it hit all time high in march, market was crazily chasing after Lim Kang Hoo related counters at that time ( IWC proposed merger with IWH), and i knew Ekovest should not worth that much at that time, but in deep i know Ekovest is going to be a legendary company in 5-year time, so i sold 70% to lock in my profit and the rest is free shares to me (my avg price) and i dont have to worry if it is going to plunge, and can probably buy back during a big correction.



Technical Outlook


breakdown with super high volume, and the price drop below 200sma, definitely not a good signal. Falling knife? i cant precisely predict how low it can drop further, so i will just buy batch by batch, mother share is apparently more appealing at this point since son is trading at premium of 22.65%

p.s.: trading of IWCITY has been suspended until Friday, so Monday it could negatively affect the price of counters linked to Lim Kang Hoo again




Disclaimer: it is not a buying recommendation, your money, your decision



Saturday, 29 April 2017

MPI: fairly valued? (part 2)

forecast P&L by TA Research
pls read (here) to understand more about semiconductor industry ~~
let's get straight to the point

STRENGTHS & OPPORTUNITIES
Growing Automotive Segment
The global automotive semiconductor market is expected grow at a CAGR of 6.4% from 2017 to 2022. MPI is well prepared to grow its Automotive contribution from 24% of group revenue in FY16 to 50% over the next 2-4 years. Well positioned, MPI already has existing coverage of 7 out of the top 10 automotive suppliers (TA Research). MPI mentioned that leading Automotive technologies that are used for safety features have  passed the stringent qualification stage and will see more meaningful earnings fruition in the coming quarters (Kenanga Research). Exposure to Automotive is good due to high barriers of entry and stable recurring income.

Completion of Automation
According TA Research on 20 Apr 2017, MPI has completed its investments in vision inspection equipment. However, immediate cost savings are unlikely to be realised, as the 519 workers are redirected to different roles to support expansion plans. 4QFY17 capex is expected to be minimal.

Global Leader in MLP
MPI is among the top producers of micro leadframe package  in the world. To grab more market share, MPI spending a lot in CAPEX and R&D to improve the features of its MLP as well as increased production efficiency through reducing floor space and headcount, and shortening assembly cycle time.

Exposure to Stable Automotive & Industrial segments
MPI has relatively larger exposure to the automotive and industrial segments as compared to its peers, growth in these segments is typically more stable over time because of longer product life cycles.

Margin Improvement
MPI has been targeting high-margin portfolios for leaded high-density packages, MLP, and test
services which contribute around 85% of sales.

Potential M&A 
MPI is actively looking for automotive related acquisition targets to acquire technologies to expand its existing capabilities, which is in line with its plans to grow automotive segment. With net cash of RM419.7m, M&A related activities can be done easily.

Beneficiary of Depreciating Ringgit 
Benefiting from stronger USD, although MPI typically hedges 50% of its net USD exposure 12 months forward. Sales are mainly denominated in USD, but only 50-60% of costs (mainly raw materials) are denominated in USD. 
Source: AllianceDBS Research

WEAKNESSES & THREATS
Cyclical Nature of Smartphones & Tablets market
A major slowdown in the smartphones sales (possibly due to high market penetration), will hurt MPI, contribution from the smartphone segment is still significant at the moment (around 40%)

Sharp Depreciation of USD (which is unlikely)
Depreciation of the USD would affect its earnings as sales are mainly denominated in USD

Global semiconductor outlook
MPI is a general OSAT player but with a more diverse customer base, it does not have excessive exposure to a single large customer. As such, its fortunes are generally tied to the outlook for global semiconductor sales. Its price and valuation are affected by the performance of other listed OSAT players, which are mostly based in Taiwan (ermm, im not familiar with taiwan market).
Source: AllianceDBS Research

for reference only, info outdated, cant get the latest at the moment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
source: http://www.malaysiastock.biz

Profit increased substantially over the last 4 years in tandem with consistent growth of revenue. Profit margin has been improving over the years. High ROIC & ROE, high profit margin and is expected to improve further due to larger exposure to automotive and value added products, cash position is superb and dont have any long term borrowings as per Q3 report, with net cash of RM419.7m, acquisition related activities can be done easily. MPI is now trading at the acceptable EBIT multiple of 8.34 and P/E of 12.91.
According to projected earnings by TA Research, P/E of MPI for FY17=12.15, FY18=9.89, which is very attractive if and only if the earnings can be achieved :)

In a nutshell, MPI is expected to grow with in tandem with the recovery of semiconductor industry. Larger exposure to automotive is good due to high barriers of entry and stable recurring income, which can offset the cyclical nature of communication sector and decreasing demand in PC. Any automotive related acquisition would be great to boost its earnings to the next level. I will monitor closely on its automotive's revenue contribution as it is critical to its future growth. To me, the downside risk is limited, and im willing to buy more during weakness :)



Disclaimer: it is not a buying recommendation, your money, your decision


Tuesday, 25 April 2017

MPI : Identifying Market Demand&Opportunities (part 1)

I am obliged to  tell/warn u that this post is mainly about facts & figures regarding semiconductor industry and key segments review of MPI, u may get bored easily if u r not interested :)
for those interested, pls have a look on A Quick Review on MPI Q3 Result before continue

Industry Review
Economic instability, inventory excess, weak demand for PC’s, tablets, and mobile products in the past three years has caused slow growth for the semiconductor industry.
source: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3385417

Fortunately, the worst appears to be over :) The Semiconductor Industry Association announced worldwide sales of semiconductors Jan 2017 increased 13.9% as compared to the Jan 2016. Jan marked the global market’s largest yoy growth since Nov 2010. Yoy sales increased substantially across all regions: China (20.5%), the Americas (13.3%), Japan (12.3%), Asia Pacific/All Other (11.0%), and Europe (4.8%). Following the industry’s highest-ever revenue in 2016, the global market is well-positioned for a strong start to 2017 (Mar, 2017).
Source: https://www.semiconductors.org/news/2017/03/06/global_sales_report_2015/january_semiconductor_sales_up_14_percent_compared_to_last_year/

Worldwide semiconductor revenue is estimated to total $386 billion in 2017, an increase of 12.3% from 2016, according to Gartner (April, 2017).
Source: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3678417

Operating Segments Review
MPI's principal activities are manufacturing, assembling, testing and sale of integrated circuits, semiconductor devices, electronic components and leadframes. It is operating in 4 major segments, namely consumer/ communications, industrial, automotive and PC/notebook segments. Its product offerings within the communications (RF PA, RF switches, Sensors, TVS), infrastructure (RF switches, Low noise amplifiers, Clocks), industrial (PMIC, Amplifiers, iSolators) and automotive (TPMS, LED driver, Airbag control) segment. Several of its top ten customers are leaders within the IoT and automotive space (July 2015, TA Securities).

Consumer/ Communications Segment  (smartphones,tablets, feature phone)
Continual Growth of Global Smartphone Market
Global Smartphone Sales is expected to grow 7% in 2017, improved from 2% annual growth rate in 2016, thanks to improved economic situations in selected regions / countries, as well as expected hardware innovations which would trigger strong replacement sales. Asia Pacific remains as the biggest region, followed by North America. Africa Middle East will maintain the highest growth rate through 2022. The three largest smartphone countries by far in the next five years will be China, India and the USA, due to their massive populations (Mar, 2017).
source: https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/blogs/devices/smartphones/smart-phones/2017/03/10/global-smartphone-sales-to-grow-7-yoy-in-2017#.WPq1gtKGOMp

According MAW, the global smartphone market is now expected to witness substantial growth over the forecast period owing to advancements in the electronic, telecommunication, and m-Commerce industry as well as the increasing penetration of the Chinese smartphone industry. Overall, the global smartphone market is projected to register a healthy CAGR of 7.9% in terms of value and 5.8% in terms of volume during the forecast period 2016-2024 (apr, 2017).
source: https://mobilemarketingwatch.com/theres-no-slowing-global-smartphone-growth-71535/

MPI is benefiting from the growth of global smartphone sales. Despite MPI is trying hard to shift its focus and operation to automotive segment, due to cyclical nature of smartphones, contribution from the smartphone segment is still significant at the moment (around 40%). 

PC/Notebook Segment
Global PC shipments fell 2.4% in Q1 2017, 10th quarter of decline in a row (April, 2017).
source: https://venturebeat.com/2017/04/11/gartner-global-pc-shipments-fell-2-4-in-q1-2017-10th-quarter-of-decline-in-a-row/

Revenues from the PC segments should continue to fall in tandem with the structural decline in end-demand (source: AllianceDBS Research). Contribution from PC segment is considered great if managed to maintain or only fall marginally over the years (not gonna talk much as i think PC industry is dying).

Automotive Segment
The future of the global automotive semiconductor market looks good with opportunities in the passenger car and commercial vehicle segments. The global automotive semiconductor market is expected to reach an estimated $45.9 billion by 2022 and it is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% from 2017 to 2022. The major drivers of growth for this market are increasing vehicle production, increasing semiconductor content per vehicle, growing demand for advanced vehicle safety and comfort systems, and growing government regulations regarding CO2 emissions (Apr, 2017).
source :http://finance.yahoo.com/news/growth-opportunities-global-automotive-semiconductor-221600855.html

MPI plans to grow its automotive contribution from 24% of group revenue in FY16 to 50% over the next 2-4 years (TA Research). Strategy to grow the automotive sales contribution will reduce the earnings volatility in the communication, Automotive is typically more stable over time because of longer product life cycles (AllianceDBS Research). Among products currently produced include tyre pressure monitors, proximity sensors and airbags (TA Research).
According to Kenanga Research, MPI sales will be underpinned by the increasing number of new product introductions in Automotive, MPI mentioned that leading Automotive technologies that are used for safety features (such as advanced package for pressures, magnetic, acceleration sensors), have already passed the stringent qualification stage and will see more meaningful earnings fruition in the coming quarters.
According to CIMB Research, MPI's new airbag sensor production is gaining traction despite having only started production in the past 4-6 months. MPI is the single source supplier of the sensor for a European automaker and has shipped about 6-7m units of the airbag sensor to this client since beginning production at end-2016.  

In short, strategy to focus on automotive sector is brilliant due to its high barriers of entry and stable recurring income, which can offset the cyclical nature of communication sector and decreasing demand in PC. 

Industrial Segment
The global market for industrial semiconductor is projected to reach US$60 billion by 2022, driven by growing trend towards digital manufacturing,  robust investment in industrial automation technologies and the growing role played by electronics in developing intelligent automation solutions.
take some time to read full article at http://www.strategyr.com/pressMCP-7918.asp to understand the overall industrial semiconductor market. 

Industrial semiconductors are used in several applications, including manufacturing and process automation, power and energy, medical, test and measurement, building and home control, and military and civil aerospace.
source: http://marketrealist.com/2015/12/will-drive-growth-industrial-semiconductor-market/
“MPI is focusing on growing its industrial earnings as industrial markets for semiconductors are projected to grow 8.1% annually over the next four years,” this is mentioned in CIMB Research on 25 July 2016. Not much info I can get from AR or research report regarding its industrial segment, but industrial segment remains quite stable over the years (21%-24% of the sales), I can only assume this segment should grow consistently over the years.

I will talk about Capex expenditure, SWOT, financial ratio and forecast P&L if time allows~~

朋友问:花这么多时间研究一间公司,很赚很多钱的哦?
我答:不肯定,至少跌的时候我不会怕 :)


Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision



Wednesday, 19 April 2017

A Quick Review on MPI Q3 Result




Revenue rose 12%, mainly due to higher contributions from Asia, US and Europe segments which climbed 7%, 28% and 10% respectively yoy. Gross profit and profit margin improved impressively as the cost of sales is well managed. Operating expenses are increased probably due to R&D. Other operating expenses increased substantially due to forex loss. Prior years' deferred tax resulted in big gap in taxation.


Prospects
The Board anticipates the industry to grow moderately in the coming quarters. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Board expected the performance of the Group to be satisfactory for the financial year ending 30 June 2017 (extracted from Q3 report).

Technical Outlook




MPI is now trading at the PE of 12.73, this is considered quite "cheap" in tech sector. MPI had surged 50% since the released of Q2 result, i managed to grab some at 10.82 during "promotion" last week. MPI is now trading at range of 10.75-12, immediate resistance at 12, i will add a little if it manages to break the resistance with high volume, but definitely not tomorrow, from what i learned from past experiences, a stock will normally close up sharply in tandem with the satisfactory result released the next day, but it could drop on following day because of profit taking.

i will write a detailed analysis on MPI and market outlook if time allows~~



Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision

Wednesday, 12 April 2017

Prolexus - momentum investing or speculating?




PRLEXUS draws my attention after it crossed and closed above 200 days SMA on 7 april.
it had been falling down before the released of the disappointed 1QFY17  result, from 1.66 to 1.36
afterwards, it had been trading between 1.36 - 1.47 range even though the 2QFY17  result reported net profit rose 9% yoy. After a month of waiting, it successfully broke the strong resistance of 1.47 & 1.50 yesterday with volume, im now waiting for it to pull back to add more

http://www.malaysiastock.biz


Revenue, net profit & profit margin increasing consistently year after year
High ROIC & ROE, net cash company, trading at PE of 10 & EBIT multiple of 4.73



Company Performance
Prolexus Bhd’s 1QFY17 net profit dropped16.7% yoy to RM6.4 m, mainly due to slower sales and probably the impact of minimum wages (from ww.wsinchew.com.my).
Fortunately, the performance rebounded as 2QFY17  result reported net profit increased 9% yoy mainly on higher contribution from the group’s apparel division

Apparel Segment -let’s just focus on Apparel since it accounting for 97% of the revenue
Apparels Manufacturing Business Unit
Prolexus Group has over the years established itself as one of the reputable garments manufacturer for the internationally renowned brands.
What are these renowned brands? Namely  Nike, Oshkosh, Under Armour, ASICS, Gear for Sports, Champion, Fila, KRU, Disney, Umbro, Saks Inc, Parisian.
It has 3 manufacturing plants located in Malaysia and China to serve customer requirement. Prolexus is a garment designing and manufacturing service provider. Company products are exported to international markets which comprises of North American, European Union, Australia and Asia.
Apparels Retailing Business Unit
Prolexus has its own brands under Be Elementz and Bixiz Kids.
source:http://www.prolexus.com.my

Strengths & Opportunities
Profit margin
Gross margin held relatively steady at 19.2% (19.5% in 1HFY16). This was in spite of the full effect of higher minimum wage impact. Profit margin are expected to remain stable for FY17, given the cost-pass-through nature of Prolexus’ contracts.

New expansions
Meanwhile, Prolexus’ exciting double plant expansion remains on track to be completed in FY18. New Vietnam plant are anticitaped to commence operations in 1QFY18. It will initially enlarge existing output by 30%, with the potential to double existing capacity. Meanwhile, its Kluang fabric mill is scheduled to begin operations in 2QFY18. The fabric mill will enhance margins with cheaper knitted fabric input produced in-house. However, for the interim initial start-up costs and underutilisation of capacity are expected to initially weigh on margins (source: AmInvestment Bank Research)

Beneficiary of depreciating ringgit 
According to its FY16 annual report, 97% of Prolexus’s FY16 revenue is contributed from exports to foreign countries, out of which the exports to US alone accounted for 55.5% of its revenue, whereas revenue from Malaysia accounts for merely 2.5%. Therefore, should ringgit continue to weaken, Prolexus will be rewarded with increasing foreign export demands as well as gains from foreign currency translation.
Source:http://aspire.sharesinv.com/38088/prolexus-slow-and-steady-wins-the-race/

Increasing demand for active wear
The growing demand for active wear around the world owing to increasing health awareness may attract new business opportunities to Prlexus 
source:http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160831005048/en/Global-Sports-Fitness-Wear-Market-Witness-Growth


Weaknesses & Threats 
90% of the group’s total sales are attributed to its key customers
About 65% of its sales for the year ended July 31, 2015 (FY15) were from Nike and another 25% were from Under Armour.
Source: http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/prolexus%E2%80%99-vietnam-expansion-plans-boost-its-production-capacity
source: http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1599628/推行各种扩充计划.宝翔前景看俏









Revenue projection are lowered given the new development with Nike amid heightened competition from other brands such as Adidas and Under Armour (source: AmInvestment Bank Research).

Global economic downturn, geopolitical risks, intense competition that would be slowing down the business of its key customers, which in turn decreasing the orders


let's see who is the one that push up the price recently
EPF and Manulife are buying!!




Prlexus's products



Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision






Monday, 10 April 2017

GKENT - Patiently waiting

source: http://www.malaysiastock.biz











Top line and bottom line of GKENT have been growing consistently, what's more surprising is that net profit doubled as compared to FY 16. I have mentioned in my last article Brief Analysis on Market Outlook & Construction Stocks (GGGE that i was keep buying and indeed i did it so right





the price had been stagnant for 3 months since dec 2016, the quarter result was released on 20 march and the closing of that day was 3.23
the price broke the strong resistance of 3.15 the next day, and keep breaking new high everyday, the closing price on 7 april was 4.22, gain of at least 23% if one bought it before quarter result

is Gkent fully valued at current price?



Gkent is very attractive if u look at ROE, profit margin, cash on hand
but one may think PE of 15.63 is quite expensive
however, investing isnt about looking at the past, i am expecting at least 50% growth in terms of EPS because FY18 will be including the revenue from LRT 3
am i being over optimistic? the EPS FY 17 increased 103% as compared to FY16, the management prove that they can nail it over the years


extracted from AR 2016












The engineering division contributed 79% of the top-line to the tune of RM471 million and is the main growth driver for FYE2017. The metering division also saw higher revenue amounting to RM128 million which makes up 21% of the topline for FYE2017 (extracted from qtr report).
Orderbook is vital to a a construction company, and with FY17 job wins at RM1.1bn, GKent’s orderbook stands at RM6.2bn. This translates to a superior cover ratio of 10.4x on FY17 construction revenue, one of the highest in construction sector

with the RM6.2bn orderbook on hand,
let's assume 6.2bn to be completed within 5 years=1.24b revenue per year
which is more than double of revenue of FY17 598,965 without taking water metering division which constitutes 19% revenue for the FY17 into account
so i am considered quite conservative in anticipating the EPS to grow 50% yoy

Eyeing to grow orderbook further
GKent is keen to participate in the system works for rail projects such as the East Coast Rail Link, Southern Double Track and High Speed Rail. Apart from that, it has also tendered for a water treatment plant job (RM200m) where it is going against 2 other contenders.

Extra info
Gkent is planning a 2-to-3 share split and investors love this kind of corporate exercise which can make the stock ''cheaper'' and affordable, and possibly driving the price up further

Technical outlook


Gkent is very bullish, trending updward since the released of quarter result, immediate resistance at 4.42, the stochastic and RSI indicators shown Gkent is overbought, for those interested, can try to catch around 4 on weakness



my 1st batch has earned  177% gain, after averaging up all the way before quarter result and it even triggered the max weightage set(20%) of my portfolio, here is my latest average price & gain

it's worth to wait


























Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision

Thursday, 9 March 2017

Brief Analysis on Market Outlook & Construction Stocks (GGGE)

At 1st, let' take a look on KLCI index

Sign of strong upward trending, immediate resistance at 1730 (hopefully can break above it)
Interest hike? it seems not affecting our market at all this time, why i said so?

http://www.businessinsider.my/fed-interest-rate-hike-march-probability-100-percent-2017-3/?r=US&IR=T#srMm0QOzxG8PF3DI.97

Foreign funds were dumping Malaysia Stocks like there is like no tomorrow at the time FED raised interest last year. In contrast, they have been buying non-stop for 3 consecutive days though they anticipating FED will be raising interest rate next week, dont u smell something?
If KLCI index can break above 1730 with high volume in next 2 weeks, i will then sailang all my available cash into equities market.

In stock investment, stock selection is important, but what equally important is sector to be focused, a stock will only 'rise and shine' if and only if overall industry is doing good, for 2017, im still anticipating construction stocks could outperform others because value of construction jobs highlighted in Budget 2017 totalled RM99bil.

for full article, pls refer:http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/10/25/construction-stocks-rally-following-budget-2017/

Constructions Index

immediate resistance at 313, the index is now sloping upward and supported by 20 days EMA
do note that the 20 days EMA cross above 70 SMA in Jan (Golden Cross),  which means superbullish

Gkent (my favorite construction stock)

my 2nd stock that went above 100%
Gkent is trending sideways since Dec 2016, im not worrying about it, in fact im buying it and averaging up since Feb. Why? As the project delivery partner (PDP)  for LRT3, Gkent will be including the very 1st revenue from LRT 3 in coming quarter result.
How much is the revenue?
9 billions revenue is shared by Gkent and MRCB and to be completed in 5 years
estimated will bring in 900m revenue, which translates 225m for each quarter, impressive huh?

Gamuda

Known for being a reputable and reliable operator in multi-billion ringgit infrastructure projects, Gamuda’s name is usually the first to crop up when it comes to high-profile government projects.
Gamuda Bhd is set to have a busy 2017 as it outlines two major projects with staggering figures, namely the RM28bil MRT2 project and four townships with an estimated gross development value of RM45bil. http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/12/13/busy-2017-for-gamuda/

Gamuda have finally broken above its strong resistance, the sky is the limit now?? It depends whether the foreign funds manage to push it or not as EPF is dumping it recently, for risk taker, i can suggest to consider Gamuda-WE as the premium is only 6.8%

Upcoming project that might benefit Gamuda:
ERL worths 55 billion
HSRl worths 40 billion
Penang Transport Master Plan worths 27 billion
MRT3 projects which are all underground, will be announced in 2017

Gadang
Gadang is definitely one the the most undervalued construction stocks, currently trading at P/E of 8
the price hardly move though it announced a spectacular quarter result on 25 Jan
Gadang surge up 6.2% on 3 march as it is rumoured to be awarded one of the packages of MRT2 project, im not suggesting to buy Gadang-WB as premium of 38% is unacceptable to me

Ekovest
For more info, pls refer my prev post
Ekovest is surprising me as it keep breaking new high after special dividend and share split

2nd quarter result is came in above expectations as net profit surging 7.8x yoy to RM41m, driven by a strong construction division.

my 3rd stock that break 100% gain mark, more to go

New catalyst
Ekovest has drawn up plans to list its property and infrastructure units on Bursa Malaysia

http://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/02/208902/ekovest-targets-listing-2-more-divisions-bursa


In a nutshell, construction sector looks promising to me in 2017, the aforesaid 4 stocks make up more than 50% of my new investment portfolio, and i will probably keep these stocks till year end unless there is major changes announced.


Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision










Friday, 20 January 2017

Johotin - stochastic buy signal forming

done a quick FA analysis on Johotin after its warrant price retraced to an attractive level recently



my checklist


PBT increase substantially in FY16, and my checklist shown Johotin it's still an undervalued company with strong fundamental. Its new factory is completed and estimated to contribute significantly to F&B segment. As F&B segment generating around 73%  of the total revenue (based on latest qtr report), new factory is expected to bring more income to F&B in FY17 as the demand for sweetened condensed milk and evaporated milk is still growing. At current price, Johotin is worth to be researched and i would like to dig more into its fundamental as well as its prospect.


Technical Analysis 
Forgive if i have wrongly interpreted the chart as im still a newbie in TA


stochastic buy signal forming, once the blue line cuts above red, the price is expected to go all the way up, the main road block will be at 1.32, immediate support at 1.22 and 1.11

However, in view of current volatile market situation ahead of Donald Trump inauguration, I don't recommend to buy now, holding cash and buy on weakness is my strategy


Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision


Thursday, 19 January 2017

Ekovest -RM10 billion company in making







Original source: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/18/ekovest-orderbook-to-exceed-10bil-in-18-to-24-months-time/


First bought Ekovest because it's defensive, dont expect it manages to grab so many projects in a short time, it's kind of unstoppable :)

Recent happenings
  • Sale of a 40 % stake in the Duke concessionaire for RM1.13 billion and invites EPF to be its partners
  • Won the biggest-ever project (DUKE-3) worth RM3.74bil, with a 50-year concession to collect tolls and keep construction segment busy for the next 3 ½ years
  • River of Life
  • Awarded two contracts to improve and beautify the Klang and Gombak rivers
  • JV work package worth RM2.1bil for Pan Borneo Highway project


Oh, don’t forget the big one, RM6.32 billion job to build an expressway that consists of Kampung Baru Link, Istana Link and Kapar Link Expressway in the Klang Valley

I like the ambitious managing director of Ekovest Bhd, Lim Keng Cheng, he set the target to become the top 30 listed companies on Bursa Malaysia within five years.


Although market is full of uncertainties currently, but Ekovest looks super promising to me
It would be one of my core holdings in 2017

will definitely add more on weakness

For a detailed fundamental analysis on Ekovest, i suggest to take a look at http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/104926.jsp
it's written by WealthWizard in a professional manner


Disclaimer: it isn't a buying recommendation, your money, your decision

Monday, 2 January 2017

2016 was impressive, hopefully 2017 could be better


100% profit!

Why 2016 was a good year for me?
The FBM KLCI ended at 1,641.73 on December 30, down 50.78 points or 3%, yet I managed to make a return/ROI of 32.77% and beat the market

The picture below shows the return of my portfolio before I starting to restructure and sold most of my stocks, mainly due to the U.S election and interest hike.



In 2016, I have lost considerable amount of money in Pohuat, Wtk & Tekseng, mainly because of wrong judgement and chase high. Fortunately, I managed to make my money back in Gkent, Kesm, Gamuda-we & Cscstel. Overall, 2016 was a surprisingly good year as portfolio significantly exceed my expectation of 15% ROI.

Lessons learnt in 2016?
Don’t over-diversified
I had been so greedy and buying too much of stocks in 2016, my return would be superb if I invest all my money in Gkent, Kesm, Gamuda-we & Cscstel instead of chasing all those trending stocks, which yield only little return and some even caused loss just like what Tekseng did to me..

       Portfolio management for 2017
  • 7 or max 8 stocks in my portfolio
  • 2 high dividend defensive stocks are required to guarantee my return and protect my portfolio, REIT can be considered
  • All these stocks, if possible, should not be relevant to each other to avoid unsystematic risks


Don’t try to time the market
For a good stock, all u need to do is dumb dumb hold, don’t let it go
I had been acting smart and trying to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest for the past 2 years, I would not hesitate to sold when a stock trading sideways for a period of time (usually >1month), when I found it couldn’t break the resistance, and also the down-trending stocks.
I promised myself to buy back during weakness and sometimes I manage to grab before too late (Kesm, Gkent) and sometimes I don’t even have the opportunities to buy it back (Padini, Oldtown)

By Cold Eye in his latest book,《孙子股市兵法》


Emotion control
Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”-Warren Buffett
It is easy to say but difficult to execute, will try hard to upgrade the “software & hardware” in order to accomplish.
What doesn’t kill Malaysia could actually make it stronger?
  • Depreciating of crude oil prices
  • Political turmoil
  • Slowing China economy
  • Brexit
  • U.S interest hike
  • Selling of foreign fund
  • Victory of Donald Trump
  • Falling of Ringgit

All these factors had trigger the ‘fear’ and caused investors selling like there’s no tomorrow, which subsequently led to market plunge. You could easily make tons of money if u seize the opportunities to buy during market correction as KLCI bounced back quickly every time.

Looking forward
2017 going to be a challenging year as the equity market will be extremely volatile, mainly because of how Donald Trump presidency will affect US economic policies and the world economic climate, don’t forget The US central bank also signalled up to three hikes in 2017.

There is only 1 goal I set for 2017, grow my fund to 6 digit
Time management and focus are the key to reach my goal

    Plans in 2017
  • Enhance knowledge in fundamental analysis, specifically in analysing financial statements
  • Practising paper trading using technical analysis to assist entry timing
  • Study more in economics
  • Conducting more company analysis and post more